Drawing up a predictive fuel and energy balance of a boiler house in conditions of insufficient data

Abstract

The tasks of compiling a predictive fuel and energy balance for thermal energy sources in conditions of insufficient data are relevant when deciding whether it is appropriate to allocate funds for their difference in modernization, carrying out periodic adjustment work, and calculating emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere. Determination of the state of each of the elements of the system is a long-term costly task. The paper shows a method of compiling predictive energy consumption by means of statistical methods of information processing. The study revealed a decrease in heat consumption compared to the previous period due to a number of parametric factors, which confirms the need for both additional adjustment of modes and modernization of the heat source. The shown mathematical apparatus allows to determine the degree of influence of climatic factors on the total amount of heat consumption. It should be noted that the identified dependence is strictly individual, inherent only in the analyzed system. For another similar system, the check for collinearity and, as a result, the general form of the function Q=f(Xi) may differ from that obtained in the article. The results of the model calculation can also be used to calculate the expected useful supply in subsequent periods, the economic assessment of further modernization of the worn-out heat supply system, the formulation of a tariff policy, the assessment of the effectiveness of investments from budgetary or borrowed funds, etc.